{"id":624,"date":"2025-08-15T22:02:45","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T16:32:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/?p=624"},"modified":"2025-08-15T22:06:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T16:36:40","slug":"india-us-relations-a-lot-depends-on-the-alaska-summit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/india-us-relations-a-lot-depends-on-the-alaska-summit\/","title":{"rendered":"India\u2013US Relations: A Lot Depends On The Alaska Summit"},"content":{"rendered":"

The upcoming Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin Alaska Summit could determine whether secondary sanctions on India intensify.<\/a><\/p>\n

The India\u2013US relationship, once hailed as a defining strategic partnership of the 21st century, now faces a moment of renewed uncertainty. After two decades of steadily narrowing the strategic gap between New Delhi and Washington, the trajectory appears to be at risk of sliding back toward an era when the two capitals frequently stood at odds.<\/p>\n

The foundation of this modern partnership was built on India’s economic rise, its gradual shedding of long-held strategic caution, and its willingness to embrace deeper defence and political ties with the United States. Over the past decade, this alignment was reinforced by the signing of four key “foundational” defence agreements, closer cooperation in sensitive areas such as space and advanced technology, and the launch of institutional mechanisms like the 2+2 ministerial dialogue, the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), and TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) to enhance collaboration in high-end research and innovation.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s turn<\/p>\n

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has brought a sharp inflection point to the relationship. While the Joe Biden administration had already been contending with difficult externalities, particularly the ripple effects of the Russia\u2013Ukraine war, Trump\u2019s second term has amplified these pressures by adopting a harder, more transactional stance toward India.<\/p>\n

Perhaps, the most striking flashpoint has been Trump\u2019s willingness to threaten and apply secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil, India among them. While China remains the largest buyer of Russian crude, and Europe continues to receive substantial volumes of Russian LNG, the Trump administration has chosen to spotlight India\u2019s purchases, a move that has raised eyebrows not just in Delhi but in Washington as well.<\/p>\n

The Alaska summit, where Trump\u2019s anticipated meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is going to take place this week, now looms as a pivotal moment. Though framed primarily as a potential step toward ending the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict, its outcomes could have cascading effects on India\u2013US ties, particularly on the question of whether these secondary sanctions will remain, intensify, or be lifted.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s blurred crosshairs<\/p>\n

There are three primary factors behind Trump\u2019s hard stance on India. First, Trump\u2019s frustrations with unresolved global conflicts have led him to search for quick, decisive outcomes, often by applying direct pressure on actors he believes can be moved. This approach collides with the reality that wars rooted in deep-seated geography, history, and cultural divisions such as the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza are rarely resolved on tight deadlines.<\/p>\n

By setting artificial timetables for peace, Trump risks overestimating his leverage and underestimating the entrenched nature of these disputes. Second, Trump\u2019s trade policy calculus plays a role. His trade team\u2019s inability to secure greater access to India\u2019s agricultural and dairy markets has prompted him to use sanctions as an indirect form of negotiation.<\/p>\n

By linking sanctions relief to both Russia-related compliance and broader trade concessions, Trump is attempting to tackle two policy objectives at once, although at the risk of alienating a key partner. The imposition of 50 per cent tariffs alongside secondary sanctions has so far not elicited a significant policy shift from New Delhi, potentially deepening Trump\u2019s irritation. Third, there is a political dimension tied to Trump\u2019s reaction.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration has been frustrated by New Delhi\u2019s refusal to publicly credit Trump for playing a behind-the-scenes role in averting a major India\u2013Pakistan conflict in May this year. While India has its own reasons for downplaying such mediation claims, the episode has added a personal edge to Trump\u2019s approach.<\/p>\n

The Stakes of the Alaska Meeting<\/p>\n

Much will depend on what unfolds when Trump and Putin meet in Alaska. A breakthrough agreement is widely considered unlikely, given the hardened positions on both sides. The best-case scenario would be an agreement to hold follow-up talks involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, opening a more structured path toward conflict resolution.<\/p>\n

For Putin, the meeting will be a chance to gauge Trump\u2019s strategic intentions: Will the US ease sanctions in exchange for a ceasefire, or will it double down if Russia continues its battlefield advances? If the talks fail, a prevailing expectation, Trump is likely to escalate secondary sanctions, particularly against India, which is perceived in Washington as a more pliable target than China.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s larger economic leverage over the US, combined with ongoing US\u2013China trade negotiations, makes punitive measures against China politically and economically riskier for Trump.<\/p>\n

While further sanctions might inflict economic pain on Moscow, expecting them to force a rapid change in Russian behaviour may be overly optimistic. If the Alaska summit fails, Trump may find himself boxed into a Russia policy quagmire – one in which his options narrow and his ability to claim a diplomatic victory diminishes.<\/p>\n

In such a scenario, the temptation to extract \u201cwins\u201d elsewhere could grow. Unfortunately, this dynamic risks holding one of America\u2019s most consequential bilateral relationships – its partnership with India – hostage to the vagaries of Trump\u2019s Russia strategy.<\/p>\n

Bilateral Matters<\/p>\n

India\u2013US ties are no longer just about defence sales or annual summits. They have evolved into a broad-based partnership encompassing technology co-development, climate cooperation, joint military exercises, counterterrorism coordination, and supply chain resilience efforts. The Indo-Pacific strategy, in particular, hinges on close alignment between Washington and New Delhi to balance China\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n

A rupture or even a prolonged chill in the relationship could reverberate beyond the bilateral sphere. It could weaken the Quad\u2019s cohesion, slow progress on critical technology sharing, and give China more room to manoeuvre in Asia. Moreover, India\u2019s foreign policy doctrine of \u201cstrategic autonomy\u201d means it is unlikely to bend fully to US pressure on Russia, suggesting that sanctions will not achieve the compliance Washington seeks without imposing collateral damage on shared interests.<\/p>\n

The Alaska summit, therefore, is about more than US\u2013Russia relations. It is a bellwether for the trajectory of US\u2013India engagement in Trump\u2019s second term. A constructive outcome that opens channels for broader peace talks could ease the sanctions climate and create space for both Washington and New Delhi to refocus on their strategic agenda.<\/p>\n

Conversely, a failed summit could see Trump doubling down on punitive measures, increasing the risk of a bilateral rift at a time when the Indo-Pacific\u2019s security architecture demands closer India\u2013US coordination, not less. For now, both sides will watch Alaska closely, aware that the decisions made there may ripple across continents.<\/p>\n

For India, the challenge will be to safeguard its strategic autonomy while preserving the hard-earned gains of two decades of partnership. For the US, the question is whether it will allow a single foreign policy gambit to jeopardize one of its most valuable relationships in Asia.<\/p>\n

First published at ETV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The upcoming Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin Alaska Summit could determine whether secondary sanctions on India intensify. The India\u2013US relationship, once hailed as a defining strategic partnership of the 21st century, now faces a moment of renewed uncertainty. After two decades of steadily narrowing the strategic gap between New Delhi and Washington, the trajectory appears to be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":625,"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624\/revisions\/625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekmishra.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}